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Friday, November 6, 2026 · after the close
Chip stocks bounced and a strong jobs report lifted the Nasdaq, so we gained 0.7% against the S&P's 0.3%. The week still cost us 4.9% against 2.7% for the S&P, because our AI-heavy funds took the brunt of Thursday's sell-off.
Today
+0.7%
S&P 500 +0.3%
Since Sep 24
−6.6%
S&P 500 −4.1%
Vs the S&P
−2.5 pts
since Sep 24
Cash
19.5%
of the account
The account vs the market
Account
What moved the market
The trigger: a strong jobs report
The economy added 165,000 jobs in October against about 65,000 expected. Wages rose 0.4% in the month and unemployment slipped to 4.1% (Schwab). That is good news for the economy, but it keeps the Fed leaning toward a rate hike in December: markets put the odds near 73%.
How it played out on Friday
S&P 500 (SPY)+0.3%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)+1.4%
Dow−0.5%
World stocks (VT)+0.2%
Chip fund (SMH)+3.6%
TSM+6.3%
NVDA+2.8%
Halozyme (HALO, on our watch list)−15.7%
Why the bounce faded
- The S&P was up about 1% at the open and closed up 0.3%. Bond yields rose after the jobs data, and higher rates weigh most on expensive growth stocks.
- Buyers came back to chips. TSM rose on a report that it may make advanced memory for Nvidia (Yahoo).
- Money left the safe sectors that led all month: consumer staples fell 1.3% and real estate 0.7%.
- One up day does not undo a month: chips are still down 24% and tech 17% over the past month.
Where it stands
The S&P lost 2.7% on the week and the Nasdaq-100 5.0%, the worst week since June (Yahoo). Fear eased but did not go away: the VIX fear gauge fell 9% to 25.6, still above our alarm line of 25. Next week brings TSM's October sales (around Nov 10) and producer prices (Nov 13). NVDA reports on Nov 17.
The market by sector
S&P 500: day +0.3% · week −2.7% · month −5.0% · 3 mo −4.6%
SemiconductorsSMH
AI data-center build-out; China export rules
+3.6%
Emerging marketsEEM
The dollar, China, commodities
+2.2%
TechnologyXLK
AI spending; rates (profits far in the future)
+1.5%
Small companiesIWM
Rates and credit: they borrow at floating rates
+1.0%
CommunicationXLC
Ad spending (Google, Meta); their AI capex
+0.4%
IndustrialsXLI
Factory and data-center construction; defense
+0.1%
EnergyXLE
Oil and gas prices
0.0%
Consumer discretionaryXLY
Jobs, wages, rates; Amazon and Tesla
−0.1%
Health careXLV
Defensive; drug-price politics
−0.1%
SoftwareIGV
Company IT budgets; AI as threat and tool
−0.1%
UtilitiesXLU
Rates; now also AI power demand
−0.4%
FinancialsXLF
Yield curve, loan losses, deal activity
−0.6%
Real estateXLRE
Rates; data-center landlords
−0.7%
MaterialsXLB
China demand, the dollar, metal prices
−0.7%
Developed ex-USEFA
The dollar; Europe and Japan growth
−0.8%
Consumer staplesXLP
Defensive: people buy food in recessions
−1.3%
16 sector and region funds, total return as of the Nov 6 close. Strongest first.
How the pieces connect
- Money flowed back into the AI trade for a day: chips +3.6%, emerging markets +2.2% (Taiwan and Korea are chip countries) and small companies +1.0%. It came out of the safe sectors that led all month: staples -1.3%, real estate -0.7%, financials -0.6%. Over a month the gap is still wide: chips -24% and tech -17% against health care +10% and staples +8%.
- Strong jobs pushed bond yields up (10-year at 4.86%) and kept a December Fed hike near 73% likely. Higher rates hurt expensive growth stocks most, which is why the S&P gave back two thirds of its morning gain.
- Credit is healing slowly but is still the light to watch. Junk bonds trail Treasuries by 2.5% over a month (3.0% on Thursday), and the junk-bond spread was 3.32 on Nov 4, down from 3.44 on Oct 30. AI companies borrow heavily to build data centers, so lenders are where an AI slowdown would spread beyond tech.
- About 45% of our account sits in the AI-linked part of the market (ONEQ, MTUM, NVDA, TSM and the chip-heavy part of IEMG). We rise more than the S&P on bounce days like Friday and fall more on crack days like Thursday. This week that cost us 2.2 points against the S&P.
| Link | 1 month | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chips vs the S&P Is the AI trade leading or cracking? | −19.6% | falling | |
| Average stock vs the S&P Broad rally, or a few giants carrying it? | +7.3% | rising | |
| Cyclicals vs defensives What investors expect from the economy | −2.5% | falling | |
| Junk bonds vs Treasuries Credit stress usually shows here first | −2.5% | falling | |
| Small vs large companies Sensitivity to rates and credit | +3.8% | rising | |
| Copper vs gold Growth vs fear; tends to track yields | −2.7% | falling |
Rates, dollar, commodities, fear
10-year Treasury yield
4.86%
day +2bpmonth -37bp
Dollar index
102.30
day +0.7%month +0.2%
Oil (WTI)
$90.83
day +0.3%month −0.7%
Gold
$4,075
day −0.9%month −2.0%
Copper
$6.22
day −0.5%month −4.6%
VIX (fear gauge)
25.64
day −9.0%month +66.4%
Bitcoin
$75,802
day +0.1%month −6.9%
Early warning: 4 of 8 red
Chips cracking vs the S&P-18.6 pts; -18.0% vs 50-day1-month gap below -5 pts AND chips under their 50-day average
Market narrowing+3.3%Average stock trails the S&P by 3%+ over 3 months
Credit stress-2.5%Junk bonds trail Treasuries by 2%+ over a month
Fear25.6VIX above 25 (watch above 20)
Rates squeeze+16bp10-year yield up 40bp+ in 3 months
Dollar surge+2.5%Dollar up 5%+ in 3 months
Defensives taking over-2.5%Cyclicals trail defensives by 4%+ over a month
Nasdaq trend-9.0% vs 50-day; -3.5% vs 200-dayNasdaq-100 under its 200-day average (watch: under 50-day)
Information, not trade rules. Backtested 2000 to 2026: stepping aside when the chip light turns red lost 3.4 to 6.0 points a year after tax vs holding; half its alarms were false.
What the map says we can do
- Hold through the red lights. Four of eight are still red (none new today), but stepping aside on them lost 3.4 to 6.0 points a year after tax (failed in bt-028). The growth mix stays.
- Tax losses are the free part of this sell-off. Over the past week we banked short-term losses worth about 2.1% of the account (about 1% in tax saved) without leaving the market. MTUM sits 2% of the account under cost; its twin fund SPMO is off limits through Dec 2, after which the daily check can harvest it (rule of record since Oct 23; tax mechanics, not a return bet).
- HALO is a health-care name, the sector that led this month (+10%), and it is close to our buy zone: at $100 or lower it clears the bar for an open slot in the stock-picking sleeve (sleeve rules tested and passed in bt-024, on probation).
- Chasing the sectors that just led is not a plan: buying last year's winners trailed the market by 1.5 points a year since 2011 (failed in bt-025). The momentum fund's own index review (announced Nov 11, effective Dec 1) will tilt it toward the new leaders with no taxable trade for us.
The account at the close
| Holding | Weight | Day |
|---|---|---|
| ONEQ Nasdaq Composite | 19.6% | +1.1% |
| MTUM US momentum | 19.1% | +1.8% |
| VOO S&P 500 | 17.5% | +0.3% |
| IEMG Emerging markets | 6.8% | +2.1% |
| RSP S&P 500 equal weight | 6.8% | −0.4% |
| IEFA Developed markets ex-US | 5.1% | −0.7% |
| NVDA Nvidia | 3.2% | +2.8% |
| TSM TSMC | 2.3% | +6.3% |
| Cash Settling or waiting to be invested | 19.5% |
Rules and how close they are
| Rule | Fires at | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA automatic sell line | $155.48 | $186.68, 20% above | watch |
| Re-check any holding at -25% from cost | -25% | NVDA -16% (12% above its line); MTUM -9%, TSM -7% | watch |
| Junk-bond spreads (credit stress) | 4.00 | 3.32 on Nov 4, 17% below | watch |
| Nasdaq-100 trailing the S&P over 6 months | 15 points | 5.9 points | clear |
| Dollar up over 6 months | +5% | +0.9% | clear |
| Nasdaq fund (ONEQ) or momentum fund (MTUM) above 25% of the account | 25% | 19.6% and 19.1% | clear |
| Any single foreign fund above 18% | 18% | 6.8% (IEMG) | clear |
Research
Halozyme (HALO), after its earnings
WATCHExpected return +10.9% a yearBad case -34%
Halozyme earns royalties when big drug makers use its technology to turn IV drugs into quick shots under the skin. The quarter was strong: sales up 39%, royalties up 44%, full-year guidance raised, and none of our warning signs tripped. The stock still fell 15.7% to $103.68, and no news source explains why. Two risks the first memo missed: its patent fight with Merck is going its way in Europe but against it in the US until about 2028, and its biggest royalty (DARZALEX, 45% of royalties) steps down in 2029-30. Priced for those, and for its own worst patent scare (-48% in 2022-23), it returns about 10.9% a year, just under our 12% bar. It qualifies at $100 or lower. No trade.
Next
- Monday 08:45: buy IWB (a Russell 1000 fund that replaces SCHX) with the cash from Friday's tax-loss sale (19% of the account) once it settles. Then the daily tax-loss check.
- Watchdog every 20 minutes in market hours: the NVDA sell line, plus a Telegram alert on a 2% or 4% move in the account.
- Monday 15:30: evening review and research. EOG reported Thursday and is next; AMG reports Monday.
Sources: Robinhood (account, closes, filings), FRED (junk-bond spreads), Yahoo Finance, Schwab, Reuters, Halozyme (release, slides), The Motley Fool (call transcript).